2008 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: PROJECTIONS
Daily Presidential Tracking Poll
Rasmussen Reports, Monday, November 3, 2008
“On Monday, the final full day of campaigning for Election 2008, the Rasmussen Reports Daily Presidential Tracking Poll shows:
• Barack Obama with 52% of the vote.
• John McCain six points back at 46%.”
It is important to note this finding from Rasmussen Reports does not exist in a vacuum. Obama’s support has been between 50-52% for 39 straight days. For most of those days, McCain has been in the narrow range of 44-46%.
If the day-before-the-election Rasmussen Report projections (see table below) hold true as they did in 2004:
Obama will win:
260 likely and safe
26 leans Dem
5 tossups
Obama Total 291
McCain will win:
160 likely and safe
0 leans Rep
56 tossups
McCain Total 216
The overall total 538 electoral votes is reached when Missouri’s 11 votes and Ohio’s 20 votes (noted as ties below) are added to the Obama and McCain likely totals. Based on the Rasmussen model, Barack Obama would win the election with 291 electoral votes even if both Ohio and Missouri go for McCain, giving him a total of 247 electoral votes, 23 electoral votes shy of the required 270.
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