2004 Projections & Results
2004 Electoral and Popular Vote Projections
Compared to Actual Election Results
Because the presidency of the United States is decided based on electoral votes and not the popular vote, we actually hold 51 (50 states plus the District of Columbia) separate elections, with the winner taking all in virtually all these states. (It is possible for Nebraska and Maine to split their electoral votes.)
Undoubtedly, the two major party campaigns have conducted repeated internal polls in the states which are in play. We at Imagine A Great Election have decided to use Rasmussen Reports as our baseline poll in part because of their accuracy in 2004:
“Rasmussen Reports Electoral College projection shows George W. Bush with 222 electoral votes and John Kerry with 186. There are now eleven states with 130 electoral votes in the Toss-Up category.
“Of the eleven Toss-Up states, Rasmussen Reports shows Bush with a slim lead in four (Florida (27), Nevada (5), New Mexico (5), and Ohio (20)).
“Kerry also has a slim lead in four of the [Toss-up] states (Michigan (17), New Hampshire (4), Pennsylvania (21), and Wisconsin (10)).”
All the “slim leads” turned out to be accurate. Iowa’s 7 votes were leaning toward Bush and went to him.
Bush won 286 electoral votes. Kerry won 252 electoral votes.
Thus, Rasmussen Reports projections were 100% accurate, even in states in which the margins were so close as to be well within the margin of error.
In 2004, the final Rasmussen Reports projection in the popular vote was:
Bush 50.2%
Kerry 48.5%
The actual margin on Election Day:
Bush 50.7%
Kerry 48.2%
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